UKGC Research Finds Consumers Judge TikTok Raffles on Whether They Look Genuine, Not Whether They Are Legal

The Gambling Commission has published research into how British consumers engage with illegal lotteries and raffles run by individuals on social media, focusing on TikTok after reports of such draws rose during 2025, with Facebook and Instagram also examined.

The regulator said it commissioned the work to fill gaps in its understanding of why people take part and what their journeys look like. Yonder Consulting ran a three-stage mixed-methods project.

The first stage used digital intelligence to analyse public raffle-related conversation on TikTok and map how the ecosystem functions: how people first encounter these draws through livestreams, recommendations and reposts, how participation frequently moves off TikTok onto payment platforms and other third-party channels, and which cues hosts and participants treat as signals of trust and legitimacy. Those findings shaped a later quantitative survey and qualitative interview stage, which looked at how common participation is, how often users stumble across draws rather than seeking them out, and whether the way hosts frame a raffle changes how risky or lawful it appears.

The central finding is that legality is not what consumers are assessing. They were generally more concerned with whether a raffle looked genuine and offered a realistic chance of winning. Low ticket prices, informal presentation and the ability to pay through familiar methods all reduced the perceived risk, which in turn made people less likely to report concerns.

The Commission also found the supply side is uneven. Some smaller hosts may not fully understand the rules they are breaking, while others appear to use particular language and payment practices to obscure what they are running.

The research adds to the regulator's black market work, an argument the industry uses when resisting tighter rules on licensed operators, as with the 540 betting shop closures reported since the Budget. Prevention work funded by the statutory levy, such as Glasgow's £3.44 million grant, targets the same consumer awareness gap.